Look into my crystal Oscar

Our task this week is to predict the winner of the Oscar for Best Picture using social media tools.  As a starting point, we were given a list of some of the more credible websites which can be used in tracking/measuring social media. 

 

And the nominees are :

Avatar

The Blind Side

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Up in the Air

Up

A Serious Man

Precious

An Education

District 9

 

So how does one predict a winner based solely on what people are saying, and how they are saying it?

 

I started out by simply opening the recommended websites and typing the movie titles into the search bar.  I also tried ‘Oscars’ and ‘Academy Awards’ and sometimes the names of hte actors.  I found some interesting stuff.  Like:

 

• Most of the websites provided make mention of the more popular films (such as the top 4 listed above) and not of the rest.
• Some sites ask you to register your information before being granted an account.  (some sites even ask you to pay).
• Trendhunter.com only really made mention of Avatar and Inglourious Basterds.  There were all sorts of interesting movie-related items for sale (like leather Pandora masks and miniature figurines of Aldo Raine in Nazi-fighting gear)
• There’s a really cool article about how District 9 used QR coding as part of their advertising campaign.
• I found forums, like Y!Buzz, where people were debating which films were better.
• You can find how a movie – like Inglourious Basterds – was received soon after its release at websites like CrimsonHexagon.com (looks like it did pretty well!)
• You cant track the progression of a movie’s reception – like Avatar – with tracking sites like BuzzStudy.com (looks like it did pretty well too!)

 

I think what I’ll primarily base my guess on is an awesome website called SocialMention.com.  It tracks keywords used all over the Internet, the sentiment in which it’s being used, and even time stats letting you know when the last person mentioned the keyword.  Of all the movies nominated, Avatar is by far the most discussed.  This is true for all the social media sites I visited, but especially so on Social Mention.  The Hurt locker didn’t do nearly as well as I thought it would (based solely on my overhearing the conversations of friends).  The two real contenders were The Blind Side and Inglourious Basterds.  Both had high Strenght, Sentiment, Passion, and Reach ratings, and both had the same average minutes per mention.  The real difference came down to the Sentiment chart where The Blind Side had 65 positive, 56 neutral, and 9 negative sentiments while Inglourious Basterds had 55 positive, 63 neutral, and 9 negative sentiments.  These stats tell me that lots of people are engaged in conversations with these two movies, but that the opinion is more overtly positive towards the Blind Side than it is for Basterds. 

 

So that’s my guess.  The Blind Side will win it.

 

Stay tuned for future postings where I evaluate how successful my basis for predictions really is.